The Morning Tip-Off: Season Preview Roundup
Every weekday morning, Brooklyn’s Finest will scour the interwebs for the best (and worst) of Nets coverage from the previous day (and night).
1. FiveThirtyEight predicts the Brooklyn Nets will go 25-57 as part of their NBA Season Preview. They also point to the Deron Williams for Jarrett Jack swap as a point of concern analytically:
Deron Williams — loved by advanced statistics, if not by his teammates — was given $27.5 million to go away. Therefore, this season — considered a “bridge year” by some inside the organization — will serve as an NBA roster experiment in team chemistry vs. analytics. Brooklyn’s biggest issues will likely be at point guard and on defense.
FiveThirtyEight unveiled its CARMELO player projection system this season and supply plenty of individual player projections within this article as well. Go check that out, but be prepared to see a lot of downward trends on this Nets roster.
One thing of note within their team projection. Only Thomas Robinson projects as a player that will spend time at multiple positions for the Nets. I’m not sure if that’s a function of the FiveThirtyEight projection system, or if it’s a function of a not-very-versatile roster and old school coach in Lionel Hollins. But, the Nets will almost assuredly have to experiment with lineups over the course of this season.
2. ESPN predicts the Brooklyn Nets will get 30 wins this season and also gives them a 0.63% chance of making the playoffs according to their BPI projections. That seems especially low in the Eastern Conference.
Kirk Goldsburry produces some of his trademark shot charts for the ESPN previews and notes the peculiar game of Thaddeus Young in today’s ‘Age of the Stretch Four’:
You better protect the paint against … Thaddeus Young? The tweener took almost half his shots last season from inside five feet, and hit 58.9 percent, seventh-highest among forwards who attempted at least six shots per game from there.
The projected starting lineup of Jarrett Jack, Joe Johnson, Bojan Bogdanovic, Young, and Brook Lopez combine for a projected Real Plus-Minus of -7.0 according to ESPN’s numbers. Let’s hope the bench is decent.
3.Tom Ziller and Paul Flannery over at SB Nation declare the Brooklyn Nets ‘the most boring team in the NBA’. So, that’s something. The rest of the preview is essentially rehashing the Jason Kidd fiasco and Andrea Bargnani jokes. Not Flannery’s finest, though I’m a huge fan. I suppose that can happen when you’re cranking out 30 team previews in 15 days though:
ZILLER … But is this team really relevant to the greater NBA at all? Is this in a way a lost season, just 82 games of treading water until Johnson’s massive deal comes off the books?
FLANNERY: You have a lot more faith in Brook Lopez than I do, frankly, and I’d wager that Joe Johnson will be suiting up for another team before the end of the season. I don’t see the playoffs in their future and there’s no reason to tank. But there is a reason to cut costs and trim payroll, and that’s to prep the franchise for a sale.
So, there’s that. Not a playoff team, and no reason to tank. There’s not much optimism out there in the NBA blog-o-sphere for the Nets this season, but maybe that just provides an opportunity to exceed expectations for this group.
See you tomorrow!